Will Diwali Sales Decrease Due to Month-End Cash Crunch?

Mixed sentiment among Kirana owners ahead of the festive season

It's that time of year again – the air is buzzing with anticipation, and the festive spirit is already taking hold. Diwali is undoubtedly one of the biggest shopping seasons in India. While most consumers start gearing up a week or two beforehand, our savvy retailers are already strategizing weeks in advance.

This month's Kirana Club Insider dives deep into the pre-Diwali mood of our 22 lakh+ strong kirana network. We'll explore their optimism for the season, uncover the top-selling categories, and delve into the unique trends shaping this year's festivities.

How’re retailers feeling about this season? Let’s find out!

Mood of Kiranas

Kiranas: Cautiously Optimistic for Diwali

Kirana owners across India are feeling a mix of optimism and apprehension. A recent survey conducted among 5,000 Kirana owners revealed that while nearly half (49%) are optimistic about the festive season, a significant portion (32%) remains neutral, and 19% are cautious.

Key Findings:

  • Rising Prices: The sharp increase in prices of essential goods is the biggest concern for Kirana owners, leading many consumers to reduce their purchases

  • Impact of Rainfall: Uneven rainfall patterns across India have created a mixed bag for consumer sentiment. While good rainfall in some regions has boosted agricultural income and rural demand, crop damage in others has raised concerns

  • Month-end Cash Crunch: Some Kirana owners fear that the month-end cash crunch could dampen consumer spending. With Diwali falling in the first week of the month and salaries typically paid around the 10th, there's a concern that consumers may have exhausted their funds before the peak shopping period.

Regional Variations:

While the overall sentiment is mixed, there are distinct regional variations in optimism levels. States like Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Delhi, Haryana, and Jharkhand are more upbeat about the festive season, while Gujarat is exhibiting a more cautious outlook.

Excerpts from Retailer Comments

Top Categories

What are Kiranas Stocking the Most?

The Kirana Club feed has been abuzz with Diwali preparations, with retailers sharing posts about everything from sweets and namkeens to agarbattis and puja samagri!

It's not just the posts that are making waves; we've also seen a surge in organic conversations around puja needs and agarbattis on Kirana Club App. This indicates that these categories are particularly top of mind for Kirana owners as they prepare for the festival.

To further understand which categories are topping the shopping lists of the kirana community, we asked Kirana owners across the country what they're stocking up on for the festive season. Here's what we found:

Key Findings:

  • Ghee, Tel, and Besan: These traditional festive items are the most popular among Kirana owners, with 40% of respondents stocking up on them

  • Packed Mithai and Chocolates: Retailers in Uttar Pradesh (44%), Haryana (46%), Chhattisgarh (35%), and Delhi (53%) are particularly stocking up on packed mithai and chocolates

  • Puja Needs: Given the significance of Chhath Puja in Bihar and Jharkhand, demand for puja needs is expected to surge. The survey revealed that 34% of Kirana owners in Bihar and 49% in Jharkhand are stocking up on puja essentials the most

The Most Popular Edible Gift Choice This Diwali

Consumers Crave Mithai: A Diwali Trend

As Diwali approaches, a classic question arises: which is more popular, mithai or chocolates? While packed mithai has been gaining significant traction, has it surpassed the demand for chocolates? Is chocolates even a viable gifting option during Diwali?

To settle this debate, we analyzed the Kirana Club feed and conducted a survey among our community of retailers.

When comparing packed mithai and chocolates, mithai emerged as the clear winner. Over 60% of retailers are stocking only packed mithai, and this trend is consistent across most regions, except Punjab where it is almost evenly divided.

Does that mean Soan Papdi is still Trending?

One mithai that has been making waves on the Kirana Club feed is soan papdi. Out of Packed Mithai’s share of voice on Kirana Club platform, 45% share is that of Soan Papdi.

From renowned national brands like Haldirams and Bikano to regional gems like Bhumi, Nakoda, Monali, and Muskan, there are hundreds of soan papdi brands vying for attention. 

It seems India's love affair with this flaky, sweet delight is far from over.

Packed Mithai vs. Namkeen vs. Dry Fruits

Having established mithai's dominance over chocolates, we turned our attention to other popular household items for Diwali. We noticed a recent increase in posts about namkeen and dry fruits on the Kirana Club platform, prompting us to ask retailers about their top choices.

Among these three categories as well, packed mithai is the most popular choice among retailers, with 45% stocking it the most. Dry fruits were a distant second with 35% of retailers stocking them, while namkeen was the least popular with 20% of retailers stocking it.

However, zooming in to the regional trends, we noticed that:

  • Mithai is particularly popular in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Jharkhand

  • Gujarat, Punjab, and Delhi show a stronger preference for dry fruits

  • Rajasthan stands out as a major market for namkeen, followed by Maharashtra. Gujarat also has a significant demand for namkeen

In conversations with retailers about Diwali, we noticed an interesting trend: customers are increasingly seeking custom gift packs. On asking retailers about the key factors that influence it, we found out that customers often gravitate towards well-known brands followed by larger-looking gift packs and budget packs.

Conclusion

Retailers are gearing up for a promising Diwali season, demonstrating optimism and resilience. Despite potential challenges, the festive season is expected to be a success.

Our survey revealed a significant increase in optimism among retailers compared to last year. While only 20% were optimistic in the previous year, this year's survey showed a remarkable 50% expressing positivity. This indicates a growing confidence in the retail landscape and the potential for future growth.

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